Browning from headwaters to coastal areas in the boreal region: Trends and drivers.

Browning of freshwaters, mainly caused by increased terrestrial organic carbon loading, has been widely studied during the last decades. However, there are still uncertainties regarding both the extent of browning in different aquatic ecosystems and the actual importance of different driving forces and mechanisms. To refine understanding of the extent and causes of browning and its temporal variation, we gathered a comprehensive dataset including 746 Finnish water quality monitoring stations representing various waterbody types: streams, rivers, lakes, and coastal waters. Monotonic trend analyses revealed that TOC concentrations increased in all waterbody types during the study period from 1990 to 2020, whereas non-linear trends indicated that upward trends in TOC concentrations have substantially decreased since the mid-2000s. However, despite the upward trends levelling off, non-linear analyses also indicated decreases in TOC concentrations at only a few stations. As a result, the TOC contents of the majority of Finnish waterbody types in 2020 were at a higher level than in 1990. To examine the driving forces of increasing TOC concentrations, we selected 100 riverine catchments and linked the detected trends to 24 different drivers, including both hydrometeorological and catchment characteristics. The increased TOC concentrations in surface waters could be connected to diverse human impacts: hydrometeorological variables impacted by climate change, decreased acidic deposition, and land use in terms of peatland drainage. The importance of increased temperatures was emphasized, and its role as a driver of increased leaching of organic carbon in the forthcoming years is expected to grow with climate change.

Combined use of satellite image analysis, land-use statistics, and land-use-specific export coefficients to predict nutrients in drained peatland catchment.

Maintaining and improving surface water quality requires knowledge of nutrient and sediment loads due to past and future land-use practices, but historical data on land cover and its changes are often lacking. In this study, we tested whether land-use-specific export coefficients can be used together with satellite images (Landsat) and/or regional land-use statistics to estimate riverine nutrient loads and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS). The study area, Simojoki (3160 km2) in northern Finland, has been intensively drained for peatland forestry since the 1960s. We used different approaches at multiple sub-catchment scales to simulate TN, TP, and SS export in the Simojoki catchment. The uncertainty in estimates based on specific export coefficients was quantified based on historical land-use changes (derived from Landsat data), and an uncertainty boundary was established for each land-use. The uncertainty boundary captured at least 60% of measured values of TN, TP, and SS loads or concentrations. However, the uncertainty in estimates compared with measured values ranged from 7% to 20% for TN, 0% to 18% for TP, and 13% to 43% for SS for different catchments. Some discrepancy between predicted and measured loads and concentrations was expected, as the method did not account for inter-annual variability in hydrological conditions or river processes. However, combining historical land-use change estimates with simple export coefficients can be a practical approach for evaluating the influence on water quality of historical land-use changes such as peatland drainage for forest establishment.

Increases in organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations in boreal forested catchments - Changes driven by climate and deposition.

Brownification, caused by increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations is a threat to aquatic ecosystems over large areas in Europe. The increasing concentrations of DOC in northern boreal streams and lakes have attracted considerable attention with proposed important drivers such as climate, deposition and land-use, and complex interactions between them. Changes in total organic N (TON) concentrations have received less attention, even though carbon and nitrogen losses are highly related to each other. We used long-term (1990-2019) monitoring records of 12 small data-rich headwater forested catchments in a large gradient of climate and deposition. We found that total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations were significantly increasing in almost all study catchments. The mean air temperature and change in sulphate concentrations had a strong, significant correlation to TOC change-%. Both explained, alone, more than 65% of the change in TOC concentrations, and, together, up to 83% of the variation. Sulphur deposition has already decreased to low levels, our results indicate that its importance as a driver of TOC leaching has decreased but is still clearly detected, while the impact of climate warming as a driver of TOC leaching will be even more pronounced in the future. A positive correlation was found between drainage-% and increases in TON, suggesting also importance of land management. TON trends were tightly connected to changes in TOC, but not directly linked to decreasing S deposition.

Drainage for forestry increases N, P and TOC export to boreal surface waters.

More reliable assessments of nutrient export to surface waters and the Baltic Sea are required to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. Previous nutrient export estimates have recently been questioned since they did not include the long-term impacts of drainage for forestry. We made new estimates of the total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P) and total organic carbon (TOC) export from forests to surface waters at different spatial scales in Finland. This was done by formulating statistical equations between streamwater concentrations and climate, soil, forest management and runoff variables and spatial data on catchment characteristics. The equations were based on a large, long-term runoff and streamwater quality dataset, which was collected from 28 pristine and 61 managed boreal forest catchments located around Finland. We found that the concentrations increased with temperature sum (TS), i.e. from north to south. Nitrogen, P and TOC concentrations increased with the proportion of drained areas in the catchment; those of N and TOC also increased with the proportion of peatlands. In contrast, with the increasing concentrations of N and TOC with time, P concentrations showed a decreasing trend over the last few decades. According to our estimates, altogether 47,300 Mg of N, 1780 Mg of P and 1814 Gg of TOC is transported from forest areas to surface waters in Finland. Forest management contributes 17% of the N export, 35% of the P export and 12% of the TOC export. Our new forest management export estimates for N and P are more than two times higher than the old estimates used by the environment authorities. The differences may be explained by the long-term impact of forest drainage. The spatial results indicate that peatland forests are hotspots for N, P and TOC export, especially in the river basins draining to the Gulf of Bothnia.

Catchment effects of a future Nordic bioeconomy: From land use to water resources.

In the future, the world is expected to rely increasingly on renewable biomass resources for food, fodder, fibre and fuel. The sustainability of this transition to bioeconomy for our water systems depends to a large extent on how we manage our land resources. Changes in land use together with climate change will affect water quantity and quality, which again will have implications for the ecosystem services provided by water resources. These are the main topics of this Ambio special issue on "Environmental effects of a green bio-economy". This paper offers a summary of the eleven papers included in this issue and, at the same time, outlines an approach to quantify and mitigate the impacts of bioeconomy on water resources and their ecosystem services, with indications of useful tools and knowledge needs.

Potential impacts of a future Nordic bioeconomy on surface water quality.

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The 'green shift' towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the 'green shift' highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the 'green shift' and propose 'road maps' towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services.

Nutrient loads from agricultural and forested areas in Finland from 1981 up to 2010-can the efficiency of undertaken water protection measures seen?

Long-term data from a network of intensively monitored research catchments in Finland was analysed. We studied temporal (1981-2010) and spatial variability in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), from 1987 losses, both from agricultural and forestry land. Based on trend analysis, total nitrogen (TN) concentrations increased in two of the four agricultural sites and in most of the forested sites. In agricultural catchments, the total phosphorus (TP) trends were decreasing in two of the four catchments studied. Dissolved P (DRP) concentrations increased in two catchments and decreased in one. The increase in DRP concentration can be a result of reducing erosion by increased non-plough cultivation and direct sowing. In forested catchments, the TP trends in 1987-2011 were significantly decreasing in three of the six catchments, while DRP concentrations decreased significantly in all sites. At the same time, P fertilisation in Finnish forests has decreased significantly, thus contributing to these changes. The mean annual specific loss for agricultural land was on average 15.5 kg ha-1 year-1 for N and 1.1 kg ha-1 year-1 for P. In the national scale, total TN loading from agriculture varied between 34,000-37,000 t year-1 and total P loading 2400-2700 t year-1. These new load estimates are of the same order than those reported earlier, emphasising the need for more efforts with wide-ranging and carefully targeted implementation of water protection measures.

Spatial and temporal variability of organic C and N concentrations and export from 30 boreal rivers induced by land use and climate.

Climate change scenarios for northern boreal regions indicate that there will be increasing temperature and precipitation, and the changes are expected to be larger in winter than in summer. These precipitation and discharge patterns, coupled with shorter ice cover/soil frost periods in the future would be expected to contribute significantly to changing flow paths of organic matter over a range of land use patterns. In order to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality of organic matter export we compared total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) concentrations and export, during different seasons and climatically different years, over 12 years for 30 Finnish rivers separated into forest, agriculture and peat dominated catchments. The mean monthly TOC concentrations were highest during autumn and there was also a peak in May during the highest flow period. The mean monthly concentrations of TON were lowest during winter, increased in spring and remaining high throughout summer and autumn. The TOC/TON ratios were lowest during summer and highest during winter, and in all seasons the ratios were lowest in catchments with a high proportion of agricultural land and highest in peat-dominated catchments. The seasonality of TOC and TON exports reflected geographical location, hydrology and land use patterns. Most of the TOC and TON were transported during the high flow following the spring snowmelt and during rainfall in autumn. In all catchments the relative importance of the spring snowmelt decreased in wet and warm years. However, in peat-dominated catchments the proportion of spring period was over 30% of the annual export even in these wet and warm years, while in other catchments the proportion was about 20%. This might be linked to the northern location of the peat-dominated catchments and the permanent snow cover and spring snowmelt, even in warm years.

Almost 50 years of monitoring shows that climate, not forestry, controls long-term organic carbon fluxes in a large boreal watershed.

Here, we use a unique long-term data set on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes, its climatic drivers and effects of land management from a large boreal watershed in northern Finland. TOC and runoff have been monitored at several sites in the Simojoki watershed (3160 km(2) ) since the early 1960s. Annual TOC fluxes have increased significantly together with increased inter-annual variability. Acid deposition in the area has been low and has not significantly influenced losses of TOC. Forest management, including ditching and clear felling, had a minor influence on TOC fluxes - seasonal and long-term patterns in TOC were controlled primarily by changes in soil frost, seasonal precipitation, drought, and runoff. Deeper soil frost led to lower spring TOC concentrations in the river. Summer TOC concentrations were positively correlated with precipitation and soil moisture not temperature. There is some indication that drought conditions led to elevated TOC concentrations and fluxes in subsequent years (1998-2000). A sensitivity analysis of the INCA-C model results showed the importance of landscape position, land-use type, and soil temperature as controls of modeled TOC concentrations. Model predictions were not sensitive to forest management. Our results are contradictory to some earlier plot-scale and small catchment studies that have shown more profound forest management impacts on TOC fluxes. This shows the importance of scale when assessing the mechanisms controlling TOC fluxes and concentrations. The results highlight the value of long-term multiple data sets to better understand ecosystem response to land management, climate change and extremes in northern ecosystems.

Organic and minerogenic acidity in Finnish rivers in relation to land use and deposition.

The role of organic and minerogenic acidity in controlling pH levels in Finnish rivers was studied by measuring total organic carbon (TOC) and non-marine sulphate (*SO(4)) concentrations in river water of the main river basins and their sub-basins. The basins are located along a latitudinal gradient (60 degrees N to 69 degrees N) and cover 297,322 km(2), 88% of the total area of Finland. The basins are predominately covered by coniferous forests and peatlands, and are located in areas with low sulphate deposition (80-430 mg S m(-2) a(-1)). The proportion of the basin covered by forests on mineral soils ranges from 29 to 64% and the proportion of peatlands from 3 to 60%. The percentage of peatland is highest in northern Finland (28-60%), whereas the proportion of forests on mineral soils increases towards the south. The majority of the agricultural land is located in southern and western Finland. *SO(4) concentrations were positively correlated with the proportion of agricultural land in the basin. Moreover, the percentage of peatlands had a positive correlation with the concentrations of TOC and organic anion. High peatland proportion and high TOC and organic anion concentrations decreased pH values in the river water, whereas no correlation between *SO(4) concentrations and pH was observed. The average organic anion concentration exceeded the average *SO(4) concentration in river water in 17 basins out of the 86 studied basins. The organic anion-dominated areas were situated in northern basins, reflecting the high extent of peatlands in these areas. *SO(4) dominated in southern Finland and in western coastal areas, where the extent of agricultural land, acid sulphate soils and the deposition of sulphate is highest.

Nitrogen in river basins: sources, retention in the surface waters and peatlands, and fluxes to estuaries in Finland.

Nitrogen export from diffuse and point sources and its retention in the major river basins of Finland is quantified and discussed. The estimated total export from river-basins in Finland was 119,000 tonnes N a(-1) for the period 1993 to 1998 based on N export from different land use types defined in a GIS-based assessment model, incorporated with estimates of N inputs from atmospheric deposition and point sources. Agriculture contributes 38% of the total export, varying in the range 35-85% in the south-western basins and 0-25% in the northern basins. This estimate of N export from agriculture was based on regional N balances together with data from small agricultural research catchments. Forestry contributes on average 9%, with increasing dominance towards eastern and northern parts of the country: from 2% to 15% in the southern-mid-western Finland basins to 10-30% in the large northern basins. 'Background' N export from forests on both mineral and organic soils contributes 27% on average; in the northern basins it may contribute from 40% up to 90% of the total load. The estimate was calculated based on practically all data available from 42 small, experimental catchments in Finland. Of the total N input to Finnish river-systems, 0% to 68% was retained in surface waters and/or peatlands, with a mean retention of 22%. The highest retention of N (36-61%) was observed in the basins with the highest lake percentages. The lowest retention (0-10%) of N was in the coastal basins with practically no lakes. In the national N mass balance, 38,000 tonnes N a(-1) (32%) was estimated as lake retention and 4,000 tonnes N a(-1) (3%) as retention in peatlands. On the basis of mass balances and sensitivity analysis, retention was in most cases estimated to be in the range of 7.5-12.5 kg ha(-1)a(-1) in lakes and 0-1.5 kg ha(-1)a(-1) in peatlands. The model results were tested using the split-sample technique and uncertainty estimates for different data sources are provided and discussed.

Effectiveness of constructed overland flow areas in decreasing diffuse pollution from forest drainages.

Forestry is the largest scale human impact affecting catchments in Finland and a prominent source of diffuse pollution in many water courses. Among the forestry activities, draining of wetlands had the most pronounced impacts on sediment, nutrient, and metal loading in the past. At present, renovation of old ditches and fertilization of peatlands constitute the major risk of forestry-induced diffuse pollution. Contemporary forestry aims at decreasing this risk with various riparian buffer strip designs. Among such designs, creation of overland flow areas by plugging the outlet ditches is increasingly used. Our objectives were to evaluate the potential of constructed overland flow areas to function as riparian buffers and estimate the quality and quantity of diffuse pollution from old versus recent forest drainages. We studied retention and release of pollutants from 20 constructed, 2- to 10-m-wide overland flow areas receiving drainage water from forested peatlands. Drainage waters were sampled above and below the plugged ditches three times per year from 1998 to 1999. Chemical oxygen demand and nutrient and metal loads and concentrations varied strongly between seasons, years, and drainage areas. Areas subjected to recent ditch renovations and fertilizations had clearly elevated seasonal loads and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), PO4, Fe, and Al in comparison to old treatment areas. Especially TP loads were high above the national average values measured for forestry-induced diffuse pollution. In general, water quality above and below the buffer strips did not differ significantly. Our results indicate that plugged outlet ditches and associated narrow overland flow areas do not function as proper buffers in peatland areas. We suggest that wider buffers with extensive overland flow areas are needed in order to control diffuse pollution from forested and drained peatlands.